Equities desk · Stocks · Indices
Earnings, sector flows and equity positioning — short, opinionated coverage written for people who actually read the tape.
Latest analysis
Three beats, two misses and one guidance cut that the market initially misread as a positive. The sector dispersion this earnings season is wider than the index moves suggest — here's the breakdown by vertical.
IndicesFor the first time since Q3 last year, mega-cap tech is underperforming the broader Nasdaq Composite on a 20-day basis. The rotation into industrials and healthcare is broadening participation — and complicating the AI trade narrative.
EnergyThe majors are outperforming on a total return basis, but the yield support is masking weaker capex discipline than the market is pricing. Two names we'd watch carefully heading into next quarter's reserve updates.
Small capsThe Russell 2000 has broken out of a five-month consolidation range with above-average volume. Rate sensitivity makes small caps a leveraged bet on the Fed pivot timeline — the setup is either compelling or a trap, depending on your macro view.
FinancialsNet interest margin compression is coming. The question is how fast and how much — and whether deposit repricing gives banks a longer runway than bears currently model. Regional bank balance sheets are where the risk is least visible.
TechnologyAdvanced node capacity additions from TSMC and Samsung are starting to arrive at a moment when AI training demand plateaus — at least temporarily. The front-end / back-end divergence in semiconductor pricing matters more than the headline capex numbers.
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